Since yesterday morning, I have been trading more crude oil and less silver. I thought the operation was a bit hasty, and I even told everyone that it would be safer to wait until Friday. However, I didn't expect the United States, Israel, and Iran to cash in so early as to save face. It also proved how ridiculous the Yishitiao that Trump dared to promise to be joked by netizens that he dared not sign even when Li Hongzhang came. This further illustrates that Chuan'er is not foolish at all, and behind his absurd behavior is all serving short-term interests. In fact, Trump's thinking is no different from that of ordinary people, but he focuses on topics that are more personal, such as the mid-term elections of US stocks and US debt, rather than the medium and long-term interests of the country that ordinary politicians should be concerned about. In fact, it's not surprising that Trump "accepted" the ten clauses of Iraq. After all, he never intended to perform them, so it doesn't matter if the clauses are too absurd. Nowadays, the whole world is watching to see who will break this fragile and unspoken "ceasefire" between the United States, Israel, and Iran first. Trump's latest Truthsocial statement is similar to Iran's statement yesterday. It's all about putting your finger on the trigger and waiting for battle at any time. At the same time, Trump also denied the ten articles of Iraq disclosed by the media, because from his perspective, the opposition in the United States would inevitably criticize Trump with such a "humiliating" treaty. The most fear of such a slow move is that the backyard will catch fire and disrupt the plan. In fact, all parties know that Trump is just trying to buy time for US stocks, US bonds, PCE and CPI, providing an export window for oil that has nowhere to store in the Middle East, renewing the lives of countries that are fast running out of oil, such as Japan and South Korea, and replenishing ammunition for the US Israeli military in the Middle East. When the interests and demands of all parties are inconsistent, we cannot expect the pace to coordinate. Although news of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has flooded the screen, oil prices have remained stable for the time being and have not hit new highs. Probably because the physical supply has never changed much, only the expectations and statements have changed. And yesterday's decline was more of a technical long position closing. Against the backdrop of the energy crisis, the secondary demand has been eliminated, and alternative energy is undergoing structural changes. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has also accelerated the transfer of capacity through the Red Sea pipeline, which has slowed down the rise in oil prices. At present, there is still sufficient time for crude oil to build warehouses, waiting for the collapse of the Istanbul Conference or the outbreak of large-scale fighting to trigger the next surge, and this window should not be far away.