A highly fragile ceasefire. Yesterday, we talked about the ceasefire conditions proposed by Iran, which are almost unchanged from before. A few of them are basically unacceptable to Trump and the U.S. Sure enough, within 24 hours, Trump overturned his previous statement that Iran's '10-point plan' could serve as the basis for negotiations and instead insisted on the U.S.'s '15-point plan' leading the subsequent talks. Another major loophole in the ceasefire agreement lies in the vague definition of the Lebanon front. Netanyahu made it clear yesterday that the ceasefire agreement does not apply to Lebanon, and Israel will continue its military actions against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. So, early this morning, Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, we discussed how the gap between the two sides' conditions is too large, and the likelihood of negotiations reaching a deadlock is high. If a deadlock occurs, the U.S. and Israel may resort to force again, using military action to push for talks. By next weekend, the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship carrying the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, along with the USS George H.W. Bush, will be deployed to the Middle East. At that point, U.S. forces in the Middle East will include: Three carrier strike groups, two amphibious assault ship groups, seven to eight Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, and part of the 82nd Airborne Division. If negotiations don't go well, they'll naturally escalate. As previously mentioned (http://x.com/qinbafrank/sta…), during the Korean War, between the start of negotiations and the final signing of the armistice, there were still battles like the Battle of Triangle Hill, all counteroffensives, and the Battle of Kumsong. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: 'Bitget - Buy U.S. stocks: lightning-fast entry, seamless trading.'