Polymarket: Probability of 'Israel taking military action against Iran's nuclear power plant before April 30' rises to 96%, up 51% in 24 hours
星球日报|4月 09, 2026 00:12
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's 'Israel taking military action against Iran's nuclear power plant before April 30' has risen to 96%, up 51% in the past 24 hours.
The event contract rules state: If Israel launches a military strike on any Iranian power plant before April 30, the market will resolve as 'Yes.' Otherwise, the market will resolve as 'No.' This includes but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and military actions carried out by Israeli ground forces. Cyberattacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions are not included in resolving this market dispute. Israeli airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone strikes that are intercepted, shot down, or miss their targets will not be considered in this market.
Senior Israeli officials have stated that Israel believes it is too early for a ceasefire and hopes that military actions against Iran can continue for at least another month. Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
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