Ali Charts|4月 08, 2026 19:01
I’ve been tracking a specific structural pattern for Solana SOL that has been remarkably consistent since October 2025.
It’s a three-step cycle that seems to repeat every time we lose momentum.
The Anatomy of the Pattern:
• The Reclaim: SOL rallies and manages to close above the 50-day SMA.
•The Failure: The price loses the 50-day SMA as support.
•The Consolidation Trap: Instead of dropping immediately, SOL enters a brief, sideways "complacency" period before the actual leg down begins.
Historical Evidence:
• November 2025: We saw a drop below the 50-day SMA, followed by a multi-week consolidation. The market eventually resolved lower, leading to a new local bottom.
• January 2026: Solana briefly reclaimed the 50-day SMA, only to lose it again. It "drifted" sideways for a while before the next major sell-off materialized.
• March/April 2026 (Now): In mid-March, SOL moved above the 50-day SMA (peaking near $97). We have since dropped back below it.
As of today, we are in the Consolidation Phase. Solana is hovering around the $79 - $81 range, sitting below the 50-day SMA ($85.79).
If this pattern holds, this sideways movement is not "stabilization"—it is the coiling of a new leg down.
Based on previous instances, a failure to reclaim the $86 level quickly could project a move toward the $52.(Ali Charts)
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