
比特傻|4月 08, 2026 14:33
I'm very busy today. Let me share some investment notes from Circle.
There are many articles about circles within the circle.
But one thing is missing, the user structure of USDC.
How much money will Circle earn in the next few years?
It is necessary to know the USDC issuance in the coming years.
To know the circulation of USDC in the next few years, it is necessary to only consider the current user structure of USDC
Especially the difference with USDT.
USDC's user structure:
Six types of users behind the $80 billion USDC
Category 1: DeFi users (approximately 50% of total usage)
Their needs: programmability, transparency, and seamless integration in various DeFi protocols. The reason why they prefer USDC is that DeFi protocols (especially the head protocols of Ethereum and Solana ecosystems) naturally trust compliant and transparent assets - there are people responsible and auditors available to investigate any incidents.
Category 2: Traders on centralized exchanges (approximately 15-20%)
Their needs: stability, liquidity of trading pairs. However, the share of USDT in this group is much larger than that of USDC, as USDT has more trading pairs and deeper liquidity on global exchanges, especially in Asia.
Category 3: Institutional investors and corporate treasury (approximately 10-15%)
Their needs: compliance (must be regulated and audited), reserve transparency, legal certainty. These institutions cannot touch USDT - because Tether's reserve audit history has too many issues, and if any regulated financial institution uses USDT for business, the compliance department will directly reject it. USDC has almost no substitutes in this group.
Category 4: Cross border payment and remittance users (approximately 8-12%)
Their needs: access to US dollars, low transfer fees, and instant payment. These types of users are not very sensitive to "who issued it". USDT and USDC compete fiercely in this scenario, but USDC has an advantage in compliant markets (Latin America, Europe).
Category 5: RWA (Real World Assets) and tokenization projects (approximately 10%)
Their needs: regulatory compliance, legal enforceability, and institutional level trust. USDT has almost no presence in this field.
Category 6: Payment and Commerce (Emerging, accounting for 3-5%)
Their needs: instant settlement (no need to wait for T+2), transfer on weekends and holidays, and cheaper cross-border costs than SWIFT.
Summary:
1. In the short term, Defi users make up the majority, so bear market pressure is inevitable.
2. The growth of USDT mainly relies on global traders, over-the-counter traders, and users who are not accessible to the traditional banking system. This will encounter bottlenecks earlier.
3. The growth of USDC is mainly driven by institutions, DeFi protocols, and regulated fintech companies, which excel in transparency and compliance.
Therefore, it can be boldly predicted that USDC will grow more rapidly than USDT in the future.
Timeline