Looking at BTC tonight, I tend to lean towards short-term fluctuations and gains. The biggest variable in the market over the past 24 hours has been the sudden cooling of the situation in the Middle East. After the news of the two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran came out, oil prices fell sharply, and European and American stock markets rebounded across the board, easing the pressure of risk aversion. This change is a good thing for BTC, because what was weighing on the market a few days ago was not the problem of the cryptocurrency circle itself, but the war that disrupted inflation expectations and risk appetite. Now that oil prices have fallen and US bond yields have also decreased, it at least indicates that funds are willing to return to risky assets. BTC did not follow the lead of gold in this round, but it was not smashed through either. Instead, it was a bit resilient, indicating that the chips are not in chaos. My judgment tonight is that BTC is on the rise, but it's not the kind of sudden surge. It's more like repairing emotions first and then testing the pressure above. If the situation in the Middle East does not recur in the past two days, BTC is likely to have some room for further gains. Conversely, if the ceasefire news is quickly exposed, the market will immediately weaken. Simply put, I'm leaning towards the side tonight, but I'll be prepared for sudden news that could backfire.