BitUnix analyst: Cease fire eases supply shock but does not change structural pressure, policy divergence widens, market enters' uncertainty premium dominant 'stage According to BlockBeats, on April 8th, the market experienced a sharp transition from a "comprehensive upgrade risk" to a "two-week ceasefire window" in a short period of time. On the surface, Iran's acceptance of a ceasefire and the expectation of a restart in the Strait of Hormuz have marginally eased the extreme impact on energy supply; However, from the perspective of the decision-making process, this shift is not based on the end of the conflict, but on temporary concessions under political pressure, stable demand in financial markets, and negotiation games, which means that supply risks are only postponed rather than relieved. At the same time, the Federal Reserve still emphasizes the risk of upward inflation and weak employment, indicating that the policy environment is still in a "passive response to supply shocks" state. From the perspective of policies and international reactions, structural differences are widening. On the one hand, Federal Reserve officials have reached a consensus that energy shocks will push up inflation, which has not shaken the logic of maintaining high interest rates; On the other hand, Japanese wages have reached a decades high, strengthening its expectations of interest rate hikes, indicating that major economies around the world are simultaneously tightening liquidity. This' uncoordinated tightening 'combined with geopolitical uncertainty prevents the market from forming a stable anchor for interest rate expectations. At the same time, the attack on Russia's energy facilities and Iran's retention of bargaining chips to close the strait indicate that the energy supply chain is still in a highly fragile state, and any event could trigger a price hike again.