Is the 'Spring Robbery Market' that we started discussing in early February coming to an end? Today is a big reversal for the market. It is the first time since the war broke out that the negotiations have really entered the stage. Of course, it does not mean that things will be smooth in the future. For example, the conditions in Iran that we talked about in the morning are still very harsh, and several conditions are difficult for Trump to accept. There should be repeated negotiations. Repeated negotiations may be the time for the market to panic again, but that time should not be the time for us to panic again. It is the time for us to buy at bargain prices. Did we chat here before about https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2036280940041753011? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， There is a high probability of using physical altercations to facilitate negotiations and conditional marriages. Previously, it was believed that there would be another escalation in the near future through negotiations, but now it seems that both sides are turning from a cliff to a stalemate. However, there will still be twists and turns in the negotiations. There is also an implicit time condition here: the time limit for US foreign military operations is 60 days, which originated from the War Powers Act of 1973, and the President can make decisions within 60 days. If it exceeds 60 days, congressional authorization is required. In this situation, not only the Democratic Party but also many members of the Republican Party are opposed, and a simple majority may not be able to pass. So as time goes on, the market will also see this, and the impact of war itself on the market will begin to decrease. Last Friday here https://(x.com)/tj_desearch/status/2039852485364400321? When S=46&T=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A and the truant Space, the last part of the discussion about capital expenditures and the situation in Iran also touched on a few points: 1) A 60 day period for foreign wars; 2) In mid to late April, it is the first quarter earnings season for the US stock market. The most important thing of the earnings season is to verify whether the hot AI agency boom in the first quarter can drive the popularity of big tech cloud business, after all, computing power is revenue. If it can drive, the market's questioning of AI may turn into verification, and the situation will be different again; 3) The US stock market still ranks first in terms of fundamentals, and after a significant decline in individual stocks and entering the high cost-effectiveness range, it can be ignored to build positions in the overall market. I was actually gradually buying last week; 4) For Da Bing, I bought some around 60000 yuan in early February and look forward to waiting for another good opportunity. During the US bonded season in mid April, liquidity will tighten and there may be another good opportunity; Optimistic US stock market sectors 1) The conceptual links in the AI semiconductor industry chain are highly regarded, such as storage and optical modules, which have been the sectors that Shanghou has been holding without reducing its holdings since November and February last year. Any other bottleneck links in the computing power chain are worth paying attention to; 2) The valuation of big technology is well executed, and it also offers high cost-effectiveness. The previous tweets about the capital expenditure war talked about the downward shift in valuation center brought about by changes in big technology business models, but it does not mean that they are completely pessimistic. As long as the valuation is taken down, there is still cost-effectiveness; 3) I am optimistic about the space economy. This year, the launch of SpaceX and moon landing can drive a wave, and I have also tweeted about it before. 4) Crypto related stock sectors: hood, coin, circle, etc; In the future, we may not talk about the "spring market" anymore. It's not that the market will reverse, but we can pay more attention to the fundamentals of individual stocks. The fluctuation of the situation in Iran will still have an impact on the market, but it's not the only logical thread anymore.