From "war pricing" to "negotiation pricing", Trump announced a ceasefire within two weeks and received Iran's 10 point plan. Subsequently, Iran also agreed to the ceasefire and proposed 10 conditions, while Israel also expressed its willingness to promote the ceasefire. In the short term, the market is beginning to worry about the escalation of the war and is shifting its focus to how negotiations will proceed. Looking at the statement released by Iran's Supreme National Security Council, it can be seen that this is still a very tough negotiation condition, and Iran's conditions remain unchanged from before, especially: Accept Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz; The United States withdrew from all bases in the Middle East; Compensation for Iran's losses; It is almost unacceptable for the United States, and there will definitely be significant fluctuations in future negotiations. But the progress is that this is the first time Iran has clearly expressed its acceptance of negotiations, and it has been approved by Iran's Supreme Leader and Supreme National Security Council, at least indicating that accepting negotiations has become a partial consensus, and Iran has also realized internally that it cannot afford to continue. Today's reversal may not be a trend yet, but it is a 'trading window' - lowering the market's pricing for short-term loss of control. However, it is also important to note that in the event of a deadlock in negotiations (which may be a high probability), the United States and Israel may need to intervene again to promote talks. Just like before here https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2036050753044066384? During the Korean War, from the beginning of negotiations to the final signing of a ceasefire agreement, it also went through battles such as the Battle of Shangganling, counterattacks, and the Battle of Jincheng. At that time, the market may panic again due to the saying 'the greater the hope, the greater the disappointment'. Pay attention to the progress of subsequent negotiations It has to be said that Pakistan demonstrated superb mediation skills last night: Pakistan's "two-way request" is very clever, not only "requesting" Trump's extension, but also "requesting" Iran to open the strait equally for two weeks, giving both sides "face" and "steps". Not demanding Trump to unconditionally withdraw his threat, but using the excuse that 'diplomatic efforts take time'; Previously, https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2036280940041753011? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A also mentioned that Pakistan may be a potential winner in this Middle East situation, and now it seems like it is. The influence in the Middle East and Indian Ocean region has greatly increased.