Sam MacPherson
Sam MacPherson|Apr 07, 2026 14:11
Been reflecting on the implications of accelerated Q-day on Bitcoin, and it's quite serious. Industry experts are telling us that a QC capable of breaking ECC is at the earliest 2029 and quite likely by 2032. Worse yet, fast-clock QCs can crack a private key in 9 minutes, meaning that storing BTC in a fresh address may provide no additional protection as QCs can perform faster than block times. Basically, this means there is only one viable path: burn all the BTC that hasn't upgraded after a grace period, or an equivalent method like turning off ECC support. This is a massive upgrade for Bitcoin, and core governance appears completely incapable of handling it. It's likely major BTC institutions will step in and force an upgrade. Institutions are probably already working on a plan behind the scenes, and I expect to see a roadmap soon. My base case is that Bitcoin survives, but the cure leaves a stain on Bitcoin's original 21m supply promise. Other chains are affected too, but most have demonstrated the ability to move fast, and no new tech is needed to solve this problem. Faster block times also give MEV protection against this fast-clock problem.(Sam MacPherson)
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