**[Polymarket “US-Iran Ceasefire Before May 15” Probability Drops to 37%, Down 45% in 24 Hours]** Odaily Seer monitoring indicates that the probability of Polymarket’s “US-Iran ceasefire before May 15” has dropped to 37%, a 45% decrease in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the “US-Iran ceasefire” event contract has exceeded $107 million. The rules for this event contract are as follows: If the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed cessation of direct military actions) by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve as “Yes”; otherwise, it will resolve as “No.” A “formal ceasefire agreement” requires explicit public confirmation from both the U.S. and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or overwhelming consensus through media reports confirming the agreement. U.S. Vice President Vance previously reiterated that the deadline for Iran is 8 PM Eastern Time on Tuesday (8 AM Beijing Time on Wednesday), emphasizing that Kharg Island does not signify a strategic shift. Earlier, according to two U.S. officials, before the deadline set by Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched strikes on military targets on Kharg Island early Tuesday (local time). One official stated that the U.S. struck over 50 targets on the island. The officials noted that the strikes occurred early Tuesday Eastern Time and did not target oil infrastructure. Trump has set Tuesday evening Eastern Time as the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; otherwise, it risks devastating strikes on its energy infrastructure. Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.