林晚晚的猫
林晚晚的猫|Apr 07, 2026 12:13
Polymarket currently has 254 positions related to the Iran War, with a combined trading volume exceeding $1 billion. You can bet on any detail. When will the United States launch an airstrike? 529 million. When will the ground troops enter? 127 million. When will the ceasefire be negotiated? 89.9 million. A billion dollars, the whole world really wants to make war money. Harvard calculated 'Who is making this money?', I scanned 93000 Polymarket markets and nearly 50000 wallets, The winning rate of a normal high-frequency trader is just over 50%. That is to say, 92.4% of the accounts on the entire platform are losing money. And the top 0.04% of the addresses took 70% of the profit. I was thinking before, who will do the vertical AI prediction market? If we remove both insider information and intuition, Relying solely on AI reasoning and information integration to make systematic predictions, To what extent can it be achieved? @UniPat_AI's Echo is designed to solve this problem. -The core of the team comes from Qianwen Kimi、 Leading big model teams such as Xiaomi and Seed focus on reinforcement learning and agent systems, and have received investments from top dollar funds. They developed an AI prediction system and compared their model EchoZ with real traders from Polymarket in the same batch of questions. -EchoZ-1.0, In the general AI prediction ranking, it overwhelmingly topped the global top spot, surpassing Gemini-3.1-Pro, Claude-Opus-4.6, and OpenAI's GPT-5.2. I think there are at least two places where AI is already ahead of humans. How can you confirm that you are conducting rational analysis and not being deceived by intuition? The real winners and losers are those 'uncertain' questions between 55% and 70% market confidence. In this interval, People are more likely to use their senses to fill in the gaps. EchoZ and Polymarket traders were compared positively on the same batch of questions, AI won 58% on vague and uncertain questions, and 63% on political questions, I won 59% of long cycle questions that took more than 7 days. And Echo not only checks whether the predicted results are correct, but also scores the reasoning process. They will have the algorithm automatically search for 'what kind of good reasoning', Run separately by field. 20 rating dimensions were found in the political field, For example, there is an issue called "absence signal recognition": the court has not filed a new case, and the military has not issued a new bulletin. Nothing happened, it's just a key signal. How to determine if your AI is not catering to you? ChatGPT often presents a catering style response, saying the opposite after speaking, and finally letting you judge for yourself, which is equivalent to speaking for nothing. On the AI prediction ranking, EchoZ ranks first. We conducted stability tests on 9 different parameter configurations, EchoZ is the only model whose ranking remains unchanged. GPT-5.2 ranks between 2nd and 9th. All forecast records are publicly available on http://echo.unipat.ai You can go flip through it. Echo GeneralAIPrediction UniPatAI EchoZ
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