The US Iran negotiations are dead, and the funeral has not been officially announced yet. The so-called negotiation and ceasefire messages can basically be seen as smoke bombs that delay preparations and stabilize oil prices. The stalemate of war and the economic backlash will continue to hover in the coming period. There is no consensus on the 15 conditions proposed by the United States and the 10 demands put forward by Iran yesterday. Iran asked Trump to admit defeat, withdraw all troops and lose money, and lift all shackles before ceasing fire. What the United States wants is Iran's complete denuclearization, missile removal, and severance of diplomatic relations with its allies, which is equivalent to surrendering to the United States and Israel in disguise. Iran does not want a ceasefire and has made a bunch of excuses. On the one hand, they also do not want to suffer losses, and on the other hand, it is convenient to use war to complete internal power restructuring. The longer the war drags on, the more advantageous it is for hardliners, and it is also the endogenous driving force for Iran's unwillingness to easily cease hostilities at present. Hardliners gain control over the mobilization of national resources during wartime, making it easier for the Revolutionary Guard to shift towards a military government. In addition, with the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, The elected government lost support and crowned the Revolutionary Guard with the honor of a comprehensive victory in the Great Patriotic War, until the hardliners achieved everything they wanted. So, despite occupying both the initiative and internal driving force, Iran is too lazy to cover up: if it is judged that the United States will eventually have to stop, then the best strategy now is to raise prices. This is also the core logic behind Iran's release of the 10 conditions, and Iran's current trump card is the blatant extortion of Trump. Iran does not lack war reparations. If the war is won, Iran can recoup its war costs by charging fees through the Strait of Hormuz. If it cannot win, it can also extend the timeline and engage in a protracted war with the United States. However, Trump cannot afford to delay. The domestic inflation caused by the spillover of the war, the rise in US Treasury long-term interest rates, and the subsequent collapse of the midterm elections have led to the White House repeatedly jumping between pretending to be tough and avoiding being deeply involved in the war for nearly a month. That's also why Trump broke the defense during a rare live broadcast yesterday. Time is tight, and he has no motivation to continue. The entire Iranian country can be destroyed overnight And that night could be tomorrow night After Trump's deadline, the United States will launch a saturation attack on Iran's energy facilities, completely shattering the tank and theoretically meeting the desired outcome of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. The above is only at the economic level, in fact, the situation is even worse in terms of weapon readiness consumption. The stockpile of interception missiles has bottomed out, and Iran's ability to penetrate Israel and Gulf countries is becoming stronger. The specific evidence is the attack on the largest petrochemical industrial base in Saudi Arabia, the Jubail Industrial Zone, yesterday. At the moment when interception weapons such as PAC-3 were completely depleted, the oil fields, natural gas wells, etc. of Gulf countries were completely exposed to the missile range of the Revolutionary Guard. It's hard to imagine that in just one month, the consumption of PAC-3 in the Middle East exceeded the four-year consumption of Ukraine in the Russia Ukraine war. I don't know if Trump will regret his decision to behead Khamenei before the deadline, after all, Khamenei was already the biggest advocate for surrendering to the United States. In addition, the current cryptocurrency knockoff market can be watched and all the good news and opportunities are post-war. Whether BTC can officially serve as a substitute asset for the collapse of fiat currency credit also depends on this battle.