How long does the bear market last? Can we copy the bottom now? The emergence of "new demand" during a bear market correction will determine the duration of the entire bear market cycle. The heatmap of the cost base distribution for short-term holders (STH) provides us with a very clear perspective for observation. When there is a dense cost distribution in a certain interval, it indicates that there is a large amount of new demand entering here. From Figure 1, it can be seen that when BTC retreated from its historical high of 12w to around 10.5w, the first wave of bottom buying demand emerged (during the period of 10/17-11/2). I guess at that time, many investors believed that this was just a temporary correction, so they started building positions in batches from here on. On November 2nd, it fell to 8.2w, with no demand heat appearing; At this point, everyone is a bit confused and starting to wonder if the bull market cycle has ended? Until the price stabilized and began to gradually rebound, the second wave of demand emerged (during the period of 12/26-1/27), and they also became the liquidity for high-level trapped chips to exit. Until today, most of these chips are still firmly held and have not been sold. However, when BTC fell to 60000 again, the market was really scared ..... From February to April, a full two months of consolidation did not attract enough bottom fishing troops. From the data, the demand heat is significantly lower compared to the previous two times. It shows that everyone is very cautious now, waiting to see the direction or wait for the final drop. If we compare the previous cycle (Figure 2), we can find an interesting aspect: During the previous bear market correction, there was also strong demand in the first and second waves, but it failed to prevent further decline. It is also the third wave, and the market is starting to fear, with a significant decrease in demand heat. In the fourth and fifth waves, demand began to rebound, especially in the fifth wave where there was a surge in red demand values. As the saying goes, a bear market is coming to an end when there are no more than three consecutive declines, but the more it falls, the more it buys. In order to avoid being provoked by speculators, I would like to emphasize that I am not implying that this bear market will also experience similar 5 waves, or that there will be a deep pullback in the future! Just by way of example, whether it's a decline or consolidation, as long as we see increasing demand, there's nothing to be afraid of. What if we don't see the demand heat now? Cold salad! Do not operate randomly except for regular investment. Patiently wait for its appearance, believe me, it will definitely appear!