加密前线(糖哥)|4月 06, 2026 12:47
Daily Market Interpretation - BTC
From the weekly trend, it can be seen that in the past 150 days, the price has been in a ladder like downward trend, in a structure of long and short contraction. Tang Ge believes that this cycle is still ongoing, and in the next 3 months, the weekly K will eventually follow the MA250 rounds, price lines, short selling, and grinding, which is an important sign that the bearish trend is coming to an end.
Although the probability of a direct upward trend cannot be ruled out at any time or position, the current behavior consumes too much of the bullish main force, and I personally do not have too much expectation. So, my trading plan is still the same as last week, waiting for a high sell after the rally and a low long after the retracement.
From the daily trend, the focus of the fluctuations throughout March was the formation of a "class M top" during trading and the emergence of a pullback peak that fell below the "class M top" neck line; The rally from the weekend to today can be considered as the second peak of the daily chart to reverse towards MA30. But the overall trend of being in the second downtrend sideways of the daily chart remains unchanged.
Whether it is the nearest candlestick pattern or the upward trend based on MA30, this is not considered an effective breakthrough. On the contrary, in the existing patterns of this level, it is necessary to be cautious of the risks brought by the combination of the price's second retracement of the neck line and MA30, and to reserve high selling appropriately. (Detailed picture)
From the midline structure of 4H to 12H, the trend is slightly more optimistic than the information from high-level feedback. After the daytime rally, a standard "tower bottom" prototype has formed on the market, which can greatly delay the time and intensity of the subsequent decline.
However, due to the lack of volume during the breakthrough process of the right shoulder at the bottom of the tower, it is highly likely that it is a pattern of time consolidation. The neck line of the tower bottom and the 12H MA30 area are potential short-term low long positions. If the rise driven by the bottom of the tower can extend to the breakthrough of the daily chart against MA30, it is expected to see the price reach the control line of 75180 again.
From the trend of 1H and below, it can be seen that the moving average system has completed the bullish divergence and upward trend after bonding. The current price is a downward consolidation structure with a top deviation at the 15 minute level after reaching the short-term bearish selling pressure area of 69222-70926 mentioned earlier.
Wait for 15 minutes to repair the level of underperformance, and then use the combination of pullbacks and large-scale forms to seize short-term rebounds.
The idealistic operating mode is to take advantage of the 15 minute top divergence and fall back, eat the 4-12H tower bottom retracement point, and then wait for the rise towards the control line 75180 , Of course, the actual operation still needs to be guided by specific details.
Summary: The trend of high-level bearish positions remains unchanged, and an upward trend only leads to a return to volatility, which can prolong the duration of volatility but will not easily change the trend.
The daily chart is still in the second downward sideways trend, but the small level pattern brings possibilities for the continuation of the sideways trend. It can participate in the game in the form of aggressive orders, while the rest of the strategy remains unchanged. The reference points are as follows:
Radical order: 69066-68256 (1:2), stop loss 67167 (1H entity or reaching near this point but not touching, also need to withdraw immediately), take profit reference 70926/75180, in principle, close as soon as the market is good.
Large level radical support 64218-63720 (looking for long and short, keeping an eye on the market, fast in and out, unable to enter sharp drops), short-term support 60414-58360 (1:2 fast in and out), second support 56550-54388 (sharp drop 1:2 to grab a rebound)
Short term resistance 70926-71820, second retracement suppressing 73640-75180 (hitting the daily MA30 line after arrival can participate in short-term low long) BTC
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