Tonight, I’m still leaning cautious on $BTC, favoring a short-term downside. The reasoning isn’t complicated. Over the past 24 hours, external risks haven’t really dissipated: on one hand, the Middle East ceasefire expectations have brought a slight rebound in U.S. stock futures tonight, giving the market a breather; but on the other hand, traders have pushed back the timeline for the Fed’s rate cuts this year, indicating that high-interest rate pressure remains. Adding to that, the ongoing strikes on Russian energy facilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict mean oil prices and inflation disruptions haven’t fully subsided. For $BTC, the most troublesome part of this environment is: risk sentiment might improve slightly, but liquidity hasn’t loosened noticeably. A rebound in U.S. stocks doesn’t necessarily mean crypto assets can immediately turn strong, especially when safe-haven and inflation trades are resurfacing. Funds are more likely to flow into gold, energy, and defensive sectors first, rather than immediately returning to $BTC. If there’s no new ETF inflow or unexpected positive news tonight or tomorrow, $BTC is likely to remain in a weak consolidation phase, with any rebound looking more like a correction rather than the start of a new upward trend. Short-term, I’m leaning bearish—keep an eye on whether the support below holds. If it doesn’t, the market will likely search for an even lower level.