Summary in one sentence: The current market situation: It's Monday again, so all parties are easing and preparing to rise (this is at least the third week of the cycle), and we will fight again on Friday if necessary. The following details: The decline in the US dollar index and oil prices, as well as the rise in gold and silver stocks, indicate that the market is actually betting on easing the war. As the quote suggests, although both the US and Iran are making contradictory and tough statements at the same time, their bodies are still very honest in wanting a ceasefire. Now the market is re pricing the possibility of the 45 day cease-fire plan and feels that the Trump Club will continue TACO on Tuesday. It can be clearly felt from the speeches of both sides that the surface tough words are intended to avoid making a hasty turn and provide internal explanations, but it has been clearly acknowledged that both sides have received the plan. Abandoning nuclear weapons and lifting sanctions was originally the version that Lao Ha wanted to sign, and after going through a lot of twists and turns, it is likely to fall back to this version in the end. Pakistan's international status has indeed risen a lot since it won the May 7th air battle last year and gave Trump a high hat. Thanks to good relations with China and the United States, Pakistan can end up as a mediator. But compared to Iran, it actually has better relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Due to Pakistan's high-profile stance this time, its defense treaty with Saudi Arabia has been questioned. The United Arab Emirates even demanded that Pakistan repay a loan of 3.5 billion yuan in advance. Israel, as a key variable, has been relatively low-key in recent days, and the market has not fully priced it. Obviously, Trump always wanted to stop Netanyahu and fight. If Israel makes a major move (such as attacking the Bushehr nuclear power plant or significantly upgrading Lebanon) before the 45 day ceasefire negotiations take shape, the entire ceasefire effort may collapse instantly After rebounding together in the early stages, each target may experience a differentiated market trend. If the ceasefire framework really takes shape in the next few days, the war premium of silver will be quickly squeezed out, and the $69-71 range is a reasonable target. After breaking through $4700, gold may experience an independent market trend, and the gold to silver ratio may continue to rise. In other words, a combination of gold and blank silver may be a better choice when making orders. And the gold and silver at this moment are like the big cakes and two cakes at that time.