Yin Ge's viewpoint: The impact of the Iran War on the market is not significant anymore, and inflation and AI capital expenditures are the two most core main themes that will follow. Iran has imposed a maximum toll of $2 million per voyage on some commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a new form of sovereign management. Some ships have already completed payment. This is more difficult to deal with than blockade - blockade is a short-term impact, and if charges continue, it will directly change the global shipping cost structure, continuing to propagate along the chain of shipping costs → oil and gas prices → inflation expectations → asset repricing. Inflation: The hardest tail to shake off This is the most enduring force that will affect the stock market in the future. Several superimposed factors: Structural increase in energy costs: Hormuz charges directly push up oil prices in energy importing countries. JPMorgan estimates that if oil prices remain high, US inflation rates will rise by about 0.8% The Federal Reserve is in a dilemma: Nobel laureate economist Hank warns that the Fed has already cut interest rates by 75 basis points, halted quantitative tightening, relaxed bank capital requirements, and continued expansion of the money supply. The Fed will not be able to achieve its inflation target in 2026. Tariff overlay: The Trump administration's tariff policies further push up imported inflation, and corporate profit margins are squeezed by wage inflation and raw material shortages This stagflation combination is the most difficult environment to price in the stock market, and it is difficult to go long in both bonds and stocks at the same time. AI capital expenditure: foam or foundation? This is another core contradiction in the market. By 2026, the combined AI capital expenditures of the four major tech giants will approach or exceed $750 billion. The question is: the market does not question the demand for AI, but rather questions the return cycle - when can such a large amount of capital expenditure be converted into visible profit increments? If inflation remains high and interest rates cannot come down, the discount rate pressure on overvalued technology stocks will continue to exist. The next market logic framework, currently the clearest transmission chain is: Hormuz charges → structural increase in energy costs → strengthening of inflation stickiness → difficulty for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates → continuation of high interest rate environment → pressure on AI high valuation technology stocks → simultaneous massive capital expenditures by AI giants squeezing free cash flow → risk of downward revision of short-term profit expectations The direct geopolitical risk premium of war is indeed diminishing, and risk assets are expected to rebound and the US dollar weaken after the situation eases. However, the new variable of toll collection keeps the tail of inflation from being cut. In summary, geography is the backdrop, inflation is the main stage, and the pace of ROI realization for AI capital expenditures is the core variable for technology stocks.