The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Apr 05, 2026 13:00
US stock market futures open in 9 hours. Meanwhile, it has been a highly eventful 3-day weekend, one of the most eventful weekends of the Iran War yet. President Trump has threatened to "reign hell" on Iran, declared Tuesday as "Power Plant and Bridge Day," and US forces embarked on one of the most complicated rescue missions in history. Iran's response has effectively been to "troll" President Trump on social media and threaten to "make the entire region hell if you escalate further." President Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz open, but Iran won't open it. And, new US intelligence suggests Iran is "unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon." Why won't they open it? Because pressure through capital markets and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's primary form of leverage in this war. Furthermore, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament began hinting at a potential closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait this weekend in the Red Sea, which accounts for ~7 million barrels of daily oil supply. Oil prices closed Thursday at $112/barrel and we believe we could see $120+/barrel as soon as tonight without de-escalation. A highly volatile week is ahead of us.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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