Watching BTC tonight, I’m still leaning cautious, with a slightly bearish outlook. Over the past dozen hours, several events impacting the market haven’t been easy to digest: First, the Middle East situation hasn’t calmed down yet, and high oil prices continue to weigh on risk assets. Second, the U.S. March non-farm payrolls came in stronger than expected—short-term, the economy doesn’t look as bad, but this also pushes back the market’s expectations for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon. Third, the attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are still escalating, so geopolitical risks haven’t truly cooled off. For BTC, the issue is that it hasn’t broken into a “completely independent trend” yet. When risk-off sentiment rises, funds flow into the dollar, bonds, and gold first—they don’t rush into crypto right away. Plus, there’s no particularly strong inflow on the spot ETF side for now, which shows that big money is still mostly in wait-and-see mode. On the charts, BTC is still hovering around $67K, which suggests there’s support below, but there’s also a lack of clear catalysts to push it higher. The biggest concern here isn’t a sudden crash, but rather external pressures continuing to weigh on the price, grinding it down slowly and wearing out short-term bulls’ patience. So my take is: From tonight to tomorrow, BTC is likely to stay in a choppy, slightly weak range, with a bearish bias. Unless we see a clear easing in oil prices or geopolitical news, or a significant net inflow into ETFs, it’ll be tough for BTC to turn bullish directly.