Garrett Jin: The market has not yet priced the sustainability of the US Iran war, and high oil prices may affect multiple sectors

On April 5th, Garrett Jin, the agent of "BTC OG Insider Whale", published a long article pointing out that oil is the core driving force of the US Iran War, and other economic and financial variables are affected by it. Garrett Jin believes that the US Iran War has evolved into a long-term war of attrition, with the Strait of Hormuz closed for more than five weeks, and oil prices possibly transmitted to interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and credit markets due to structural increases. According to PolyBeats data, the probability of a ceasefire between the US and Iran before the end of this month in the predicted market Polymarket is 18%, 34% before the end of May, and 46% before the end of June.