[Analysis: The average cost of BTC loss-making positions is $93,600, with many high-level trapped positions already cut] BlockBeats reported on April 5 that on-chain analyst Murphy stated the average cost of all loss-making Bitcoin positions has now fallen below $100,000, currently at $93,600. This means that under the current position structure, BTC would need to rise back to $93,000 to reach the market's average break-even point. During the two sharp declines at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large number of high-level trapped positions chose to cut their losses and exit, lowering the overall average cost of unrealized loss positions. This is commonly referred to as a "shakeout." It was also observed that the 30-day average deviation coefficient between the average cost of loss-making positions and the current BTC price is 1.4. In the past three bear market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has always exceeded at least 2.0 (as shown by the blue waveform below). When the average deviation coefficient is greater than or equal to 2.0, it indicates the market has entered an absolute bottom range. At this point, BTC's price is typically less than 50% of the "average cost of loss-making positions." To meet this condition, the lowest point for BTC in this cycle would need to drop to $46,800. However, historical patterns do not always hold true, and the "pain level" of this bear market may be much lighter than any previous cycle. According to PolyBeats monitoring, on Polymarket, in the market related to "Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 or $80,000 first," the probability of reaching $60,000 first is 68%, while the probability of reaching $80,000 first is 32%.