Probability of 'U.S. military entering Iran by April 30' on Polymarket rises sharply. Current probability: 96.5%

Odaily Seer monitoring indicates that the probability of 'U.S. military entering Iran by April 30' on Polymarket has risen sharply. The current probability is 96.5%. According to Al Jazeera, a U.S. government official told the outlet that the second crew member aboard the downed F-15E fighter jet has been rescued, and the rescue operation is still ongoing. The missing crew member has been confirmed rescued but is not yet out of danger. They added that the rescue team still needs to successfully evacuate from Iran and return safely. According to Polymarket's determination rules, if active-duty U.S. military personnel physically enter Iranian territory at any time before the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will be judged as 'Yes.' Otherwise, the market will be judged as 'No.' Special operations forces personnel qualify; however, intelligence personnel are not included. U.S. military personnel must physically enter Iranian land territory to meet the criteria. Entry into Iranian waters or airspace does not count. Odaily Seer will continue to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.