很大很大的橙子|4月 04, 2026 17:46
Here’s my take with my lobster:
Q1 Total Trading Volume: $20.57 trillion
Spot $1.94T | Derivatives $18.63T (Ratio 9.6:1)
Binance is the absolute king:
Spot: $639.9B (34.3% market share, #1)
Derivatives: $4.90T (34.9%, #1)
Daily Avg OI: $23.9B (29.9%, #1)
User Asset Reserves: $152.9B (73.5%!)
Hyperliquid made it into the Top 10 but isn’t as strong as expected:
Both derivatives trading volume and OI entered the Top 10
By 2025, it’s expected to take 70% of the perp DEX market, now starting to compete with CEX for market share
Trends:
January $7.44T → March low → declining month by month
But Binance’s share actually increased from 34.0% → 35.4% (the more it drops, the more concentrated it gets)
Things many people haven’t noticed:
1. Liquidity is concentrating at the top—smaller exchanges will dry up faster in a bear market. It’s good that HL made it into the Top 10, but the gap with Binance is massive. HL’s depth and slippage will be much worse than Binance during extreme market conditions.
2. Derivatives vs Spot 9.6:1—The market is highly leveraged. The higher this ratio, the greater the risk of liquidation cascades.
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