星球日报|Apr 03, 2026 13:34
[Analysis: Nonfarm payroll data still shows significant volatility, Fed's policy adjustment threshold remains quite high]
Odaily Planet Daily News - Creditsights Investment Grade Credit Department Head Zachary Griffiths stated: The data still has room for further downward revisions, with February showing a decrease of 133,000. This indicates significant volatility and frequent revisions in the data, which are typically adjusted again during annual reviews. Therefore, it is difficult to derive clear signals from the net data of the past few months. As for the Fed's policy based on this data, the threshold for any policy adjustment is currently very high. I believe they may be in a wait-and-see mode, especially as we observe employment data significantly exceeding expectations, far surpassing the Fed's discussions on the breakeven level corresponding to the unemployment rate. Thus, we believe the threshold for rate hikes is higher than for rate cuts, but policy is likely to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, and today's report undoubtedly further reinforces this view. (Jin10)
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