[Polymarket 'U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Before May 31' Probability Drops Below 40%, Down 12% in 24 Hours] Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's 'U.S.-Iran ceasefire before May 31' has significantly dropped to 39%, down 12% in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the 'When will the U.S. and Iran ceasefire' event contract has approached $85 million. The rules for this event contract are as follows: If the United States and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement (defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed cessation of direct military actions) before the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will resolve as 'Yes'; otherwise, it will resolve as 'No.' A 'formal ceasefire agreement' requires explicit public confirmation from both the U.S. and Iranian governments that they have agreed to cease military hostilities against each other, or an overwhelming consensus reported by the media confirming that a formal ceasefire agreement has been reached. Previously, U.S. Department of Defense spokesperson Sean Parnell confirmed that U.S. Army Chief of Staff Randy George is set to resign. This personnel change occurred one day after Trump delivered a national address on the Iran war. Several senior Army officers described George's dismissal as a 'blow to the Army.' They expressed anger and frustration over the decision, believing it further exacerbates the Army leadership's long-standing sense of being 'under siege.' Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.