To all dear fans! ——Are you ready for the second half of the bear market? This is a review, a summary, and a preparation in advance for the next round. I am an old leek who enjoys researching on chain data and using it as the core reference for my trend and cycle trading. Behind the data on the chain are people, including complex expressions of "behavior" and "emotion", so it is not just a simple case of carving a boat and seeking a sword; 'It has happened in history, so it will happen now' - this is not the correct and reasonable way to use on chain data. Only by understanding the principles and logic behind the data representation can we greatly improve the probability of making correct predictions. Of course, no one can guarantee 100% accuracy in every judgment and bet. What is important is whether you have reserved fault tolerance space for yourself, whether you have reviewed and summarized in a timely manner, and whether you have corrected and adjusted in a timely manner. In this cycle, I bought at an average price of around 1.8w-2w from December 2022 to March 2023. Based on the analysis and judgment method at that time, I wrote a tweet and it is still at the top of the X homepage (if you are interested, you can take a look). Moreover, I also escaped to the top in this round at a position of 12w+. On October 6, 2025, I placed a conditional order at $121000 based on the "MVRV extreme deviation pricing range", and once it falls below, I will take full profit (see the link below). https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/1975129765590999517 https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/1976857297721958825 In addition, spanning the entire bull market cycle, I used this analytical framework to accurately determine that the decline in July and August of 2024 was not the beginning of a bear market, that it peaked temporarily after the potential energy weakened in December 2024, and that it was the bottom of a pullback after the whale group increased their holdings in March 2025 (all of which were evidenced in my tweets at the time). There are correct judgments, but of course there are also errors. After the 1011 incident, I mistakenly believed that it was the former in the judgment of "phase correction" or "end of bull market cycle". Because there was no data available at the time to verify the conclusion of the end of the cycle, except for a simple "4-year traditional cycle theory". Perhaps accurate escape from the top has brought blind confidence to oneself. At that time, my expectation was a maximum drawdown of -30%, so I started buying at the bottom when BTC fell to 10w+and kept buying 8w+, with an average cost of 9w+. However, in hindsight, the trading decision was clearly too optimistic, underestimating the impact of a large concentration of early profit chips fleeing the market, as well as the series of chain reactions that followed. Fortunately, although I was blindly confident at that time, I was not carried away by it. When buying at the bottom, the warehouse was not full, and the use of trapezoidal hanging orders lowered costs, leaving some room for error. At the same time, they also began to reflect, summarize, and adjust their thinking. Until January 10, 2026, I saw a signal on the 'Integrated Cost Based Model' that could confirm the start of a bear market cycle, just as I can now confirm that 'the bear market has entered the second half'. On January 12th, I shared this important observation with two friends in the "Three Person Group" because they also followed me to make a premature bargain and got caught. According to the signal prompts at that time, BTC may rebound to around $98000 in the future, and this will be the last chance to escape. As you all know, BTC rebounded to $97000 on January 14th, and then on January 16th, I wrote a tweet titled 'Is the rebound at its peak or is the bull market starting?'? ”The viewpoint is clearly stated in bold font in the article - here is the 'high point of rebound' (see link below). https://(((x.com)))/Murphychen888/status/2012016759143088416 This can also be considered as the last correct correction for all the friends who have been following my tweets before the end of this bull market cycle. It is also a self redemption for myself in trading. Recently, many friends have left me messages asking when to "throw a cup"? To be honest, I don't know if I can accurately find the bottom of the bear market in the following data analysis and judgment, and I cannot guarantee it. However, since we have made it clear that the bear market has entered the second half, the simplest and most effective way is for you to stick to your regular investment for the next 6 months, so that you will not miss this rare opportunity. At the next top, 99.99% will not lose money; You just need to endure this boring and lengthy process, as well as the countless noises and price fluctuations that inevitably exist in between. Of course, I also know that many friends have insufficient cash flow and limited ammunition. So I hope to buy it in the closest position to the bottom. I can understand, and I also hope! At present, my personal expectation is that there is at most -10% to -20% room for drawdown on the existing basis, and the time frame is approximately 3-5 months when a bottom structure will form. We need to observe data indicators such as on chain sentiment, liquidity, whale behavior, supply and demand relationships, cost basis, as well as directional premiums of futures and changes in the funding structure of options. So, I will do my best to discover it as accurately as possible and catch it! Help everyone gain a leading position before the next bull market begins. But if not, please forgive me. This was not my intention, please believe that I have done my best! Hope, the next peak, everyone is here!