BTC Short term Market Analysis and Prediction: The rebound height is limited, and it will continue to decline in the future! Figure 1: The price is still oscillating and accumulating momentum below the 50 day upward trend line, and the long and short positions can be evenly matched, with half the weight; The expected high point for the subsequent rebound is around 68300, with a maximum rebound of around 69000; Figure 2: The entrusted buying amount on the order book looks quite large, but the accumulated amount is not large. The selling amount is also accumulating, but relatively small. Therefore, the price may continue to rise, but the height is limited; Figure 3: Spot ETF institutions had a net outflow of $173 million yesterday, and ETF institutions are also retreating while fighting. The bear market has not bottomed out, and rebounds are opportunities for ETF shipments. I don't see any signs of ETF institutions hoarding BTC in large quantities; Summary: 1) The war among the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating and shows no signs of easing! The US military has started bombing Iran's civilian infrastructure, including freshwater treatment plants; Trump's threat of nuclear weapons and the deployment of 50000 US troops in the Middle East suggest that a ground attack on Iran is only a matter of time; The Strait of Hormuz has become the core area of competition between the United States and Iran, and oil prices are expected to soar to $150 in the future, which will affect the global economy and increase inflationary pressure; 2) Buffett and Li Ka shing are both selling assets to cash in, holding huge amounts of cash in preparation for the possibility of a subsequent financial crisis; Tesla plummeted 20% in the US stock market, putting high-tech US stocks in jeopardy; 3) Bitcoin won't be much better either! After falling to around 65600 yuan, the price rebounded weakly, with an estimated high point of 68300 to 69000 yuan. BTC is oscillating below the 50 day uptrend line, accumulating momentum and hovering steadily. The probability of opening the weekly level 5th main downtrend in the future is very high! 4) I personally think it's a good trading strategy to short BTC when its price rebounds to below 69000. However, the bulls are fiercely resisting, and the possibility of a sustained drop in prices is not high. Nevertheless, the release of CPI data by the Federal Reserve on April 10th is likely to be a paper envelope, and could be the trigger for Bitcoin to start a sustained drop.