Looking at BTC tonight, I am still a bit cautious and will put the conclusion at the forefront: short-term downtrend, rebound is possible, but it doesn't seem like we can make a trend upward yet. In the past 24 hours, the external market has given two signals of mutual pulling. Firstly, the sentiment on the US stock market has noticeably stabilized compared to a few days ago. The market is betting that there is room for a cooling of the situation in the Middle East, with the US dollar continuously falling and oil prices not continuing to spiral out of control. As a result, risk assets are taking a breath. Secondly, the problem is that this matter has not really been implemented. Trump's statement that "military action against Iran may end soon" did not clarify the ceasefire conditions, and the geopolitical risks have not disappeared. He has only transitioned from the most tense stage to "still in talks, but could be repeated at any time". The data of the cryptocurrency industry itself is not very attractive. Although risk appetite in the US stock market has improved, Bitcoin spot ETF funds are still biased out today, and institutional attitudes are not very positive. What's more troublesome is that several Bitcoin related companies listed on the US stock market are also continuing to reduce their holdings. Empery Digital sold 370 coins, and Riot transferred about 500 coins. This supply side pressure will suppress the quality of the rebound. So my judgment is that BTC is more like a volatile bearish trend in a weak rebound tonight to tomorrow, unless there is a clearer ETF return later or the war line really cools down significantly, otherwise the upward trend is likely to be sold first. If I really want to do it, I don't think chasing high is worth it. Waiting for a deeper step back will be more comfortable.