Stocks and oil prices are increasingly moving in opposite directions: The S&P 500 ETF, SPY, and the United States Oil ETF, USO, have moved in opposite directions in 38 sessions over the last 50 trading days, the highest in at least 20 years. In other words, in 76% of recent trading sessions, when oil closed up, stocks closed down, and vice versa. This surpasses the previous record of 36 trading days set during the 2008 Financial Crisis. As a result, the S&P 500 has declined -4.0% over the last 50 trading sessions, while crude oil prices have surged +72.2%. The correlation between the S&P 500 and oil prices is down to -0.4, the most negative since July 2025, and approaching the -0.5 reading seen in February 2022. Oil and stocks are seeing a historically high negative correlation amid the Iran War.(The Kobeissi Letter)