TraderS | 缺德道人|Apr 01, 2026 07:26
Both US oil and Brent crude oil have now fallen below the 100 mark, and after the easing of stagflation narrative, the gold and silver cakes are also rebounding. The current trading trend in the market may not necessarily be that the United States, Israel, and Iran are preparing for a ceasefire, nor may the market see a decline in oil prices due to the belief that negotiations are about to begin.
The market is more like entering the middle and late stages of a trading war, where there will soon be a result regardless of whether the ground forces can control the strait after the operation begins.
Even though the three parties have not yet entered into substantive negotiations, the narrative of a conditional ceasefire is indeed advancing, and the time window is gradually being implemented. The market may not be afraid of fighting, but rather of unclear expectations. As long as a timetable and expected cycle can be provided, even if it is fake, the market can have an anchor for trading first.
The next highlight is the upcoming weekend, let's see if today's talk is about meeting expectations and blindly optimistic markets, or if capital has some information that we don't know.
For the market trend, I still insist on maintaining volatility without a unilateral upward basis until the strait is completely peaceful.
The remarks made by the Iranian president used by the market are very similar to the innovative drugs tried by Trump after too many TACOs produced drug resistance. After all, Iran has no right to speak, nor does Pezehiziyan have much power. Wall Street said that he would get TACO if he didn't get it
If the internal situation in Iran is viewed from a Chinese perspective, it can be roughly seen as Wang Jingwei and Chiang Kai shek vying for power after Sun Yat sen's death, with a civilian government leading the peace and a military system leading the war. And the true progress and ability to integrate the national defense against foreign humiliation may still be brewing.
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