比特币橙子Trader|Apr 01, 2026 00:26
Yesterday's CNBC interview with Buffett only revealed one core signal: the sniper rifle has been loaded, waiting for it to completely collapse.
Many people mock the old man for missing out on this bull market and even selling apples ahead of schedule. But the new leader Greg Abel has made it clear that the record breaking $373.3 billion in cash on the books is the real 'strategic weapon'. Today, when the indicators are approaching the extreme value of the Internet foam in 1999, the old man is holding the most horrible chips in the financial history and waiting patiently for a big harvest.
1/Ultimate 'defense is attack'
From 2022 to 2024, Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $172 billion worth of stocks, almost selling without buying. In 2024 alone, a high level of 134 billion yuan was cashed out.
He watched coldly in the bull market, watching the US stock market rush into outer space, while he kept frantically hoarding ammunition.
The result is that there are 373.3 billion dollars of short-term treasury bond lying on the account, which is the highest in the history of American enterprises.
2/High risk alerts for macro systems
What is the concept that the exclusive valuation model of the old man, the Buffett Index, has soared to 220%? The last time it was so high was the Internet foam in 1999.
In addition, the Schiller Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is approaching 39.42, also the second highest in history. He is well aware that the system is overloaded. Playing at this water level is like taking chestnuts from the fire.
3/Reclining "risk-free arbitrage"
This year (2026), Berkshire Hathaway outperformed the market by 23 percentage points just by hanging up. When others lost money and broke positions, his 373.3 billion treasury bond could earn 13 billion dollars of risk-free interest every year.
The market is pouring billions of dollars to ask him to be patient, and 'patience' itself is the core code of his trading algorithm.
4/Historical backtesting of dimensionality reduction strikes
Review the year 2008. At that time, Berkshire Hathaway only had a meager $31 billion on its books, but Buffett managed to carve out a net profit of $16 billion by undercutting Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and GE during the crisis.
Now then? His firepower is 12 times that of the past. Goldman Sachs and macro institutions are frantically warning of the double-digit pullback risk of the S&P 500, while the old man has already built a shelter.
5/Even if it's a 'fly sale', it's still a textbook level operation
Apple remains his largest single major shareholder (accounting for approximately 19%), and he openly acknowledges that Apple is superior to any business wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway.
Although he admits that Apple sold early, this transaction still allowed him to make over $100 billion in pre tax profits. The absolute profit that ordinary people dare not even dream of is just a "mistake of selling away" for him.
6/Countdown for pulling the trigger
The successor Greg Abel defined this massive amount of cash as a 'strategic asset'.
This is already clear: as long as it falls below the threshold, when everyone panics and steps in, Berkshire will initiate the largest single capital deployment in financial history. He doesn't listen to anyone saying 'the bottom is reached', he only looks at whether the target is cheap enough.
7/Final
The only question is, how far is the 'hitting price' that allows him to end his idle state and harvest the next game? Based on his macro signals over the past three years, this hitting point is getting closer and closer.
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