Tonight when watching BTC, I will be more cautious and put the conclusion at the forefront: short-term decline. In the past 24 hours, it was not the cryptocurrency industry itself that suppressed the market, but rather the events outside. Firstly, the situation in the Middle East has not eased, and oil prices continue to remain high. The market is most afraid that energy will push inflation up again; Secondly, Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities is still fermenting, and supply disruptions are expected to continue; Thirdly, the statement from the Federal Reserve is not very friendly. The core idea is to wait and see. The inflation risk is still present, so don't rush to imagine that easing will come back soon. This combination is actually uncomfortable for BTC. Because Bitcoin is no longer a purely sentimental asset, it is deeply tied to global liquidity, real interest rates, and risk appetite. With high oil prices and weak US stocks, it is even more difficult for funds to return to high volatility assets in large quantities when the long-term real interest rates rise. Recently, it can also be seen that there is a rebound in the market, but the pursuit of prices is not firm, indicating that the selling pressure is still high and the confidence in the market is not solid. Of course, the regulatory environment is friendlier than before, which is a plus point for the mid-term, but that is mid-term logic and cannot save tonight's short-term rhythm. My opinion is that BTC is more like a downward structure in a weak oscillation these days. If there is no obvious capital return or the cooperation of the US stock market to stop falling, it is likely to continue to operate weakly from evening until the next period of time. Simply put, don't get too caught up tonight. I tend to lean towards more declines and less gains.