As oil prices rise, U.S. Treasury yields start to fall, and gold prices begin to climb. This indicates that as oil prices continue to increase, the market no longer expects the Fed to raise interest rates further. On the contrary, it believes the Fed is more likely to cut rates. The reason is simple: the market has shifted from an inflation logic to a recession logic, and it’s starting to worry that the fragile global economy can’t handle too much turmoil.