The patience and confidence of the market have been severely damaged, and the 'spring crisis' has turned into a' summer crisis'. Apart from the situation in Iran, what other factors are affecting the market. Last Monday, we talked about the patience of the market. If we can't see a clear signal of a solution within the last week, then the patience and confidence of the market may suffer another heavy blow. In the last two trading days of last week, the market couldn't hold on anymore. Many people thought that the US stock market broke through last week, but from a personal perspective, when the "spring market" was first mentioned in early February, the overall US stock market was already under pressure. Since early February, the overall US stock market has been suppressed by two core logical threads: 1) In February, the market was concerned about whether the capital expenditures of Big Tech, which continued to soar in 26 years, could be accounted for. Implied are changes in the overall business model and a downward shift in the valuation center. Did this happen before in the 'War on Capital Expenditure' https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2023597321368547520? I have talked about it in the tweet with s=20; 2) Since late February, the situation in Iran has been escalating, causing market concerns to be postponed. Until February 28th, when it really started trading, it triggered concerns about inflation and recession in various aspects, dragging the US stock market from a small decline to a moderate adjustment. When observing the market, individuals tend to have a framework that prioritizes the factors that affect the market within a certain stage, focusing on the driving factor with the highest weight, as this is the main driving logic. Market changes are largely due to the evolution of the main driving logic, and subsequent turning points must also be due to changes in the main driving logic. There is no doubt that the current situation in Iran continues to have an impact. The longer oil prices remain high and energy facilities are severely damaged, the greater the pressure of inflation in the future. Short term interest rate suppression policy and medium - to long-term demand suppression. Basically, it is the main way in which the situation in Iran affects the market, which has been discussed many times before. The current focus of the situation in Iran is whether the United States will send troops to control key points in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's key energy export bases; Can the US and Iran finally negotiate. As well as the current statements from the US and Iran, personally speaking, they all point to the possibility of continuing to aggressively increase investment. Because Iran still firmly holds its asymmetric advantage in the Strait of Hormuz and has not relaxed at all. Trump released his willingness to negotiate, but the problem is that if a decent result is achieved, it will be a disaster for the United States and will not be allowed politically. Today, the Iranian parliament has approved the bill to levy tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, which is actually forcing the United States and Israel to escalate their actions in order to defeat Iran's trump card. Although today's media also reported that Trump said that he intended to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, he was not sure whether it was a smoke bomb. If that's the case, even if it can't be said that the United States has completely withdrawn from the Middle East, at least it has withdrawn from the Persian Gulf. The headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and the US military bases in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are estimated to be abandoned. Of course, there are other factors affecting the market now, but these factors are more or less side effects of the situation in Iran. 1) People are concerned about future inflation, and the core is that the duration of high oil prices determines the duration of inflation rebound; 2) The possible interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in the future are currently the focus of the market on high oil prices and the possibility of inflation rebounding and rising. In fact, the US labor market has already collapsed in February (without adding any new non farm employment, it has actually decreased). From the bond market trend in the past two days, it can be seen that the bond market has shifted from worrying about inflation and interest rate hikes to worrying about a significant decrease in demand leading to a recession. 3) In fact, the fundamental growth of AI that should be most concerned has given way to the impact of geopolitical macro factors. Of course, we will have to wait until late April to release the first quarter financial report before we can evaluate how much of the AI Agent craze that began in early 26 has been converted into cloud business revenue for big tech companies. After all, the vast majority of token computing power comes from the computing infrastructure of our own major cloud vendors. If the performance is really explosive, it will naturally confirm and verify in the market that large-scale investment can be profitable. But now the fundamental players are still waiting for the geopolitical situation to become clear. 4) The essence of the problem with private equity credit lies in the emotional impact of LP's desire to redeem early in the context of macro uncertainty. If you carefully look at the data reports of several private equity credit funds such as BlackRock and Blackstone, in fact, the credit assets are still relatively good and there has not been a large-scale thunderstorm. In early February, when the "spring market crash" was mentioned, it was believed that the US stock market would experience a small to medium level decline and adjustment. In early March, it was explicitly discussed that this US stock market adjustment should be at the medium level. At that time, the S&P was -6% and the Nasdaq was -8%. Today, the latest S&P is -10% and the Nasdaq is close to -13%. On the whole, it depends on the situation in Iran. If Trump and the United States have to escalate the situation, they will ultimately have to rely on their advantages in the battlefield to gain advantages in negotiations, and the market will have to further pressure in this process. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'