I conclude based on the price of Bitcoin and the global M2 growth rate that Bitcoin will not experience a deep bear like in 2014, 2018, and 2021! My reasons are as follows: from the graph, it can be seen that the global M2 growth rate is increasing → BTC prices are likely to rise; M2 growth rate decreases → BTC price is likely to decline. We have discovered an important phenomenon that if Bitcoin experiences a deep bear like in 2014, 2018, and 2021, it will inevitably mean that the global M2 growth rate will gradually decline from the current 10% to% or even -3.5% within 2 years. However, I am confident that there will not be a significant decline in M2 growth rate to near negative values similar to the 2014/2018/2021 trend in the next two years. The reasons are as follows. 1. 2014-15: The Federal Reserve ended the fermentation of the QE+European debt crisis, global liquidity voluntarily contracted, and M2 growth rate fell from 9%+to -3.9%. 2. In 2018, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced its balance sheet, the European Central Bank ended QE, and the world tightened synchronously. M2 growth rate fell from 13%+to around 0%. 3. 2021: After the pandemic, fiscal and monetary stimulus peaked, followed by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet (I vaguely remember that Japan also raised interest rates in 2021), causing M2 growth to plummet from 20%+to -3.8%. We found that these times were all the result of synchronized and aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks around the world, accompanied by clear expectations of economic recession or crisis. Why do I believe that the M2 growth rate will not repeat itself in the next two years and will not fall from the current 10% to 0%? 1. The Federal Reserve: It plans to cut interest rates only once or twice in 2026, and will not restart large-scale scale reduction. The goal is "soft landing" rather than actively piercing the foam. 2. The European Central Bank: The pace and intensity of interest rate cuts are lagging behind, and the core concern is inflation stickiness, which will not tighten as quickly as in 2018. 3. The People's Bank of China: Adhering to "moderate easing", the M2 growth target has fallen from 9% to 7% -8%, which is a gradual adjustment rather than a sudden brake. 4. The global GDP growth rate from 2026 to 2027 is only 3.2% -3.3%, far lower than pre pandemic levels. The central bank needs to maintain moderate liquidity to support employment and growth, and not let M2 growth rate fall close to zero. The economic recovery is fragile and requires liquidity to support it. From this, it can be seen that the significant decline in M2 growth rate to near zero or even negative growth in history is caused by the synchronized aggressive tightening of global central banks, coupled with recession or crisis. In the next two years, countries will only moderately adjust their monetary policies, coupled with high debt pressure and fragile economic recovery, and will not allow extreme tightening. Therefore, the global M2 growth rate will only gradually decline from 10%, around 6% -8% in 2026 and 4% -6% in 2027, showing a moderate decline, no bottoming out, and no turning negative trend, and will not repeat the sharp decline of 2014, 2018, and 2021. My opinion on Bitcoin: I am confident that there will be no deep bears like those in 2014, 2018, and 2021 throughout 2026-27..