TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|3月 29, 2026 17:02
A quick look ahead to next week: 1. When will the U.S. launch its final strike, and how will the ground war progress? 2. The first set of non-farm payroll data tainted by war—markets are eager to observe the impact of the war on the U.S. economy and to confirm whether stagflation might occur. 3. If the above two issues worsen, will it trigger systemic risks in U.S. stocks, leading to a liquidity crisis? 4. If such a liquidity crisis erupts, it could result in a total wipeout across stocks, bonds, forex, gold, silver, and crypto. The most dangerous point lies in the high-leverage pledges in U.S. stocks. Once it enters a vicious cycle of: inflation can't be controlled -> interest rates can't come down (or even force expectations of further hikes) -> U.S. Treasury yields spike -> institutional financing costs soar -> valuation slashes, it’s hard to stop the train without a few major blowups. This war has yet to see a defining moment, and this crisis has yet to see a major player fall. The fallout from the U.S. surveillance plane being blown in half is still brewing. If it creates a public perception similar to the "Black Hawk Down" incident in Somalia—casting doubt on the reliability of the U.S. military's command and control systems that underpin its hegemony—it could lead to a shaken confidence in dollar-denominated assets. Even gods bleed, and their health bars aren’t infinite. In short, keep a close eye on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and oil prices.
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