常为希 |AI之道|Mar 29, 2026 16:15
The relationship between on-chain cycles and liquidity needs to be reconsidered.
Right now, most MEME coins are stuck at a market cap of around $100,000 and can’t seem to break through. People think the market is doomed... but that’s not really the case. It’s just that there hasn’t been a bigger catalyst to spark excitement.
It’s not because there’s no money, and it’s not because no one’s playing anymore. Even in worse markets before, we’ve seen market caps hit $1 billion.
So why is this happening now? It’s because trading volume cycles keep messing things up (like the tides, rising and falling).
Everyone’s not really buying or selling much, just holding onto their coins (hodling). Slowly, prices get pushed up a bit, attracting more people to join in, and trading volume starts to grow.
When trading volume grows, everyone gets hyped, thinking, “It’s about to take off!” They’re willing to pay higher prices, and expectations suddenly skyrocket.
But when trading volume peaks and starts to drop, people’s earlier “super optimism” hasn’t worn off yet. Then suddenly, a bunch of people rush to sell (because expectations were too high), and prices crash hard. They hit a ceiling and then plummet, leaving many people mentally crushed, not wanting to hold anymore. That ceiling keeps dropping lower. This is also why p 小将 (Captain P) became popular.
When trading volume drops back to its lowest point, everyone is forced to keep holding their coins... and then the market sentiment cycle starts all over again.
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