‘1011 Insider Whale’ Representative: Geopolitical Conflict May Drive Up Oil Prices and Market Volatility, Countermeasures Need to Be Planned in Advance

Odaily Planet Daily reports that ‘1011 Insider Whale’ representative Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, demanding the full restoration of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The situation has clearly escalated, and he summarized three key impacts of this move: 1. Diplomatic buffers have been broken. The previously low-profile negotiations between Iran and Japan regarding the gradual passage of ships may come to an end. 2. The nature of the conflict has escalated. If strikes expand to civilian infrastructure such as electricity, it will strengthen Iran's stance and increase the likelihood of prolonged warfare. 3. Oil market volatility is surging, and market mismatches are intensifying. Crude oil volatility (OVX) has risen to 93, while the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is around 24. The ratio between the two is close to 4x, indicating that oil market risks far exceed stock market pricing. Overall, oil prices and market volatility may continue to rise, and the expected duration of the conflict may be extended.