At present, the escalation of geopolitical wars in the Middle East has led to an increase in short-term geopolitical premiums, indicating that neither side is prepared to negotiate with the other. It is estimated that oil prices may rise again next week. Geopolitical Macro US Stocks Bitcoin At present, the possibility of interest rate hikes and recession in the United States is increasing. Especially in the current low liquidity weekend, Trump should not mess around. In the short term, on a daily basis, oil prices and gold may significantly rise, putting pressure on the risk market. It still depends on whether the geopolitical conflict will escalate in the future. There is too much uncertainty about the safe haven response to the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Mid term, on a weekly basis, to determine if conflicts are under control. If they are, assets may return to their original positions; On the contrary, risk assets will only be under pressure for a longer period of time. I completely agree with the viewpoint of MSX's Space guest that the risk market is only a temporary emotional recovery before the end of the war. But even if the geopolitical situation can be resolved within a few weeks, there will still be concerns about the tax situation and the fundamentals if Walsh comes up, and what his stance will be. It still takes time to achieve structural improvement, completely clear the panic market, accumulate favorable conditions, and bring about a major reversal. So it is necessary to keep some cash at present. Looking at the current response from both geopolitical sides, if oil prices continue to rise tomorrow, risk assets will definitely not look good. At this time, Trump should always be cautious. He should not care about it at all, and then release some news to repair the mood. Then the US stock market+BTC should be able to pick up a little. The S&P is already at its lowest point since August last year, with five consecutive weeks of decline. Look at Trump's next move. Trump's toughness and caution are actually signals of ups and downs in the risk market. This is also the fundamental logic behind my playing SOL contracts. And for the volatility of on chain US stock trading, you can take a look at Maitong @ MSX_CN. My profile has a recommendation code: x8VP18. Of course, this kind of shock should also prevent Trump from really ignoring it. At that time, there will be greater negative emotions for the risk market According to previous experience, Trump may be cautious when it comes to Monday night, and first look at the actions of the geopolitical parties.