The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Mar 28, 2026 22:42
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle’s credit: Oracle’s, ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. Company’s CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle’s default now costs ~$191,000 for every $10 million of principal. By comparison, the 2022 bear market peak was ~127 basis points. This comes as Oracle’s CDS has become a preferred instrument for investors to hedge or bet against AI debt, as Big Tech is issuing debt at an unprecedented pace to finance AI. Oracle also has the most-liquid investment-grade CDS, with average weekly trades hitting as much $830 million. Meanwhile, JPMorgan is now offering a basket of CDS covering GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, and ORCL, providing a new way to bet against the Big Tech debt. Oracle’s credit risk is up to 2008 levels.(The Kobeissi Letter)
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads