The Kobeissi Letter|Mar 28, 2026 22:42
Investors are ramping up bets against Oracle’s credit:
Oracle’s, ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to 191 basis points, the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.
Company’s CDS have QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, meaning protection against Oracle’s default now costs ~$191,000 for every $10 million of principal.
By comparison, the 2022 bear market peak was ~127 basis points.
This comes as Oracle’s CDS has become a preferred instrument for investors to hedge or bet against AI debt, as Big Tech is issuing debt at an unprecedented pace to finance AI.
Oracle also has the most-liquid investment-grade CDS, with average weekly trades hitting as much $830 million.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan is now offering a basket of CDS covering GOOGL, AMZN, META, MSFT, and ORCL, providing a new way to bet against the Big Tech debt.
Oracle’s credit risk is up to 2008 levels.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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