Phyrex|Mar 28, 2026 20:51
Although BTC's volatility today isn't very significant, it's definitely not good news for the real world. The Hormuz Strait controlled by Iran and the Red Sea controlled by the Houthi forces are making oil transportation increasingly troublesome. On top of that, there's still no sign of Iran preparing to negotiate with the U.S., or the U.S. preparing to negotiate with Iran. Trump's statements are becoming harder to believe, and as a result, his approval ratings continue to drop.
Currently, the probability of a U.S. recession and rate hikes is rising. It's been a full month now, and while earlier it seemed like a repeat of Venezuela, by now I bet even Trump is feeling the pressure. The midterm elections aren't far off, and not only has the tariff situation been a rollercoaster, but even appointing a trusted Fed chair hasn't been easy. Now, the U.S. is also stuck in inflation expectations.
Oil prices are likely to rise again next week, but keep in mind, this is happening even with the IEA releasing strategic oil reserves. Oil prices have already surpassed $100, and how much longer can the IEA keep releasing reserves? Maybe three more weeks? If the war continues after that, oil prices could see an even sharper increase.
Back to Bitcoin data: weekend turnover rates have returned to lows, liquidity is poor, and low trading volumes are to be expected. Weekend expectations aren't high—just hoping Trump doesn't stir up any drama. The biggest fear is Trump causing chaos over the weekend. But looking at it objectively, BTC investors' sentiment remains relatively stable.
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