The cryptocurrency industry used to be proud of being closed 24/7, but now it should finally understand that closing is actually protecting the wallet of Chives. Up to now, although there hasn't been any groundbreaking news from Chuaner's side, the long dormant Houthi armed forces have come off the stage. Speaking of the Houthi armed forces, everyone is not unfamiliar with them. The Slippers Army is known for its amazing fighting spirit and the 90 degree maneuverability of American aircraft carriers with randomly refreshed hypersonic weapons in the desert. Due to last year's war losses, the Houthis have been quite low-key this year. The timing of their exit card is very precise at this time, and whether it is Iran's arrangement or the Houthis' internal planning, it shows that they have a high level of strategic planning ability. Usually people say that Iran is a pawn, the white glove of a great power, but can you imagine that your pet can still keep a pet? The Houthis' downfall came after the US and Israel just bombed Iran's steel plants and nuclear facilities, not only standing on the moral high ground. They also geographically sealed off the double strait blockade line. Previously, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia and other countries were forced to increase the capacity of the Red Sea reserve line. However, the Houthis armed forces have taken one truck from the Red Sea estuary, and oil tankers cannot all use the Suez Canal to bypass the Cape of Good Hope and transport to Asia, right? However, although the outcome of the Houthi armed forces will continue to push up oil prices on the surface, this will not become a reason for a jump in prices, because the previous Red Sea crisis has already caused the global shipping industry to pay tuition fees. The ships that should have taken a detour around the Cape of Good Hope have long been bypassed, and now those who dare to go through the Red Sea are either Russian/Chinese ships with some kind of tacit understanding, or ships escorted by heavy US troops. At this point, the marginal panic effect caused by the Houthis' attacks, as before, is also decreasing. Against the backdrop of steadily rising oil prices, it is highly likely that next week will still see the strongest oil prices, weakest stocks, and weak market volatility. Gold and silver will recover first, but the upper levels will continue to be suppressed by oil prices and US bonds. If the war continues, the gold price may even reach 4000, and if a ceasefire is declared and interest rates are lowered, it may look back at the 5000 area. Silver will have high elasticity and rise, playing the role of a golden amplifier. On the market, the S&P has been falling for five consecutive weeks, with a drop of over 7% since the beginning of the war at the end of February. Yesterday, the VIX rose as high as 31.65. Next week, the US stock market is expected to continue to face pressure and differentiation, with both ice and fire. Technology stocks, aviation stocks, and consumer stocks are likely to have a difficult time next week. Traditional energy stocks (such as ExxonMobil and Chevron), oil transportation concept stocks, and military industry sectors may become safe havens for funds and rise against the trend. In fact, the most difficult thing for the market now is the logic of "rising oil prices, rising interest rates, and falling valuations", and geopolitical panic is just an accelerator. 4.1 happens to be the beginning of Q2, and there may be some technical rebound or rebalancing in the market, but this is only a rebound, not a reversal. The real thing that can change the market is still war. The crisis will only be resolved when the actual supply of crude oil improves and the structural decline of oil prices and US bond yields begins. The current positioning of the cryptocurrency industry is awkward, as the market sees it as a super tech stock with risky assets. If the unexpected escalation of the war next week triggers extreme market panic and leads to a sharp drop in the stock market, institutions may sell large pancakes to replenish liquidity, but if the inflation narrative prevails, it may also follow the rebound of gold.