If there are no major negative events in the first half of this year, like a black swan event such as a Fed rate hike, BTC is unlikely to drop below the $40K range. The third wave of the downtrend, which started after the previous rebound high of $76K, might find a potential bottoming zone between $55K and $60K. From a time perspective, if BTC were to drop to the $40K range, it would mean the bear market is progressing too quickly, which doesn’t align with the usual market rhythm. Therefore, based on a comprehensive analysis, as long as there are no extreme negative factors, the likelihood of BTC breaking below $40K in the first half of this year is relatively low. The market is more likely to complete its adjustment within this relatively high range.