From a macro perspective, the Middle East situation has driven global risks from initial fermentation to the present, with the early impact on major asset classes and mid-term trends largely priced in by the market. Next, it’s highly likely that the continued fermentation of the Middle East situation → skyrocketing oil prices → clear statements from global central banks on stubborn inflation → signs of slowing economic growth → the Fed’s dilemma between hiking and cutting rates will form a complete logical chain, fueling market speculation around stagflation and recession narratives! Hmm, the U.S. seems eager to cut its losses and has a strong willingness to negotiate! Lang seems to have a similar idea, apparently exchanging information through intermediaries, but Yi might not be willing. Based on Yi’s unwillingness, Lang has become tougher. This is a key variable! From the visible updates, the King of Understanding is indeed advancing a 15-point plan through intermediaries like Pakistan, repeatedly postponing strike deadlines, and claiming negotiations are “making great progress!” But the actual actions don’t align with this, and Israel has clearly stated that “attacks will escalate and expand,” seemingly worried that the U.S. might accept an insufficiently thorough agreement just to stabilize oil prices. This is a key point of interest conflict. Given this situation, speculating on stagflation and recession narratives seems like the most probable scenario. It’s not just a narrative but also a game of interests. With imbalances in interests among all parties, my personal feeling is that the Middle East situation might become prolonged, right? #GlobalMacro #Oil #DXY #BTC #SPX #WTI #Stagflation #Recession