[The Market Currently Believes the Probability of a Fed Rate Cut This Year is Zero] Due to the Middle East conflict expected to drive up inflation, financial markets have completely abandoned bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. According to data from CME Group, the derivatives market now sees a zero probability of a rate cut this year, compared to a 1.3% probability on Thursday. Currently, the market estimates a 54% chance of at least one rate hike. The energy price shock triggered by this conflict has significantly altered the outlook for central banks worldwide, which now face the dual dilemma of rising inflation and slowing growth. As disruptions in the energy market intensify, the risk of inflationary pressures spreading into broader price pressures also increases. A month ago, just before the conflict erupted, investors were still betting on two to three rate cuts this year. However, during last week's Federal Reserve meeting, most officials still anticipated one 25-basis-point rate cut this year. (Sina Finance)