Everbright Futures: Gold Volatility Intensifies, Is There a Second Bottom in the Short Term?

Overnight, London spot gold fluctuated and retreated, COMEX gold futures fell by 3.85%, and SHFE gold dropped by 2.83%. Regarding whether the U.S. and Iran can smoothly enter peace negotiations, opinions vary: the U.S. has proposed a ceasefire agreement with 15 points; Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal and put forward its own conditions for a ceasefire, including demands for compensation; Israel, fearing the war might suddenly end, is intensifying airstrikes on targets within Iran as much as possible. The current market trading environment has become more challenging, with the macroeconomic volatility repeatedly priced in, indicating that gold has not yet stabilized. In the short term, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines. Various asset classes showed mixed performance. U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, and the U.S. dollar all experienced varying degrees of decline. Among them, U.S. tech stocks were heavily hit, with chip stocks plunging nearly 5%, dragging the Nasdaq down by over 2%; U.S. bonds fell sharply, with yields continuing to rise—2-year yields increased by over 10 basis points, and 7-year yields rose by 9.6 basis points—reflecting strong market pricing for "higher rates for longer, delayed rate cuts, or even no rate cuts"; the U.S. dollar briefly rose by over 0.35% intraday but plunged at the close, ending flat. The direction of U.S.-Iran negotiations and conflicts remains highly uncertain, while rising oil prices have triggered inflation concerns. Short-term risk assets are under renewed pressure, and caution is advised. (Everbright Futures)