At 4 a.m., Trump once again announced a 10-day delay in striking Iran, causing oil prices to drop and gold and silver to rise. This is a classic case of expectation management. The Strait of Hormuz is still not open, and crude oil can't be transported out, leading to a backwardation in the international futures market. Rumor has it that spot crude oil in the Gulf of Oman has already surged to $150 per barrel. Even though Trump is using various calming rhetoric to suppress futures prices, he can't change the real supply-demand dynamics of the market. From a military perspective, this so-called extension is a typical information warfare tactic aimed at disrupting the opponent's judgment. If this were during Khamenei's era, Iran might have actually backed down. However, judging by Iran's statement yesterday, they clearly recognize this as the third instance of strategic deception and don't believe Trump's rhetoric. Also, everyone should remember Trump's reaction when Israel bombed Iran's oil fields. He doesn't want to further fuel market concerns about oil supply when a war can't be quickly resolved. Ideally, in his mind, it would follow the Venezuela model: a swift decapitation followed by rapid control of the enemy's oil and gas resources. If that's not possible, preserving oil infrastructure to maintain market confidence and quickly restore supply would also be acceptable. After all, if Iran's energy facilities are bombed and retaliatory strikes ensue, restoring Middle Eastern energy supply could take years. However, the U.S. and Trump hold the narrative power, and the market has no way to verify Trump's hand. Trump's actions are always unpredictable, which is why the market immediately reacts and trades based on his statements, then reassesses and reprices based on actual developments. Once Trump's military preparations are complete, he'll likely announce that Iran lacks sincerity in negotiations, shift the blame, and launch a ground offensive. So right now, the risk of going long is greater than shorting. Before the war ends, there won't be a unilateral bullish trend, and as the market becomes more cautious, rebounds will become increasingly limited.