Our new report Bitcoin is a Coordination Game is live! Bitcoin drawdowns aren't random. They're coordination failures. BTC markets are driven by two types of capital. Patient capital positions gradually and supports stable trends. Speculative capital extracts aggressively and fractures coordination. Speculative capital has an incentive to defect because extracting early beats waiting around for collective gains. The problem is when too many participants act on that at once and the whole structure breaks down. That's the cycle that tends to play out. Coordination builds, weakens, fractures, and resets. Cooperation regimes make up 66% of market time with a +10.5% mean return. They start out fragile but the ones that survive the formation period become self reinforcing. Defection regimes are shorter and more violent with 60% of episodes burning out within 15 days. They do most of the damage despite lasting a fraction of the time.(Delphi Digital)