The core goal of the United States in Iran is to control the main valve of global energy. January is Venezuela, February is Iran Eliminate all energy supply channels that do not follow the US dollar system within 90 days, while promoting a controllable new government to take power and achieve energy dominance Oil is just the surface logic If we view the past four years as a continuous strategic process rather than scattered events, we can see a more complete layout The first stage is Europe, which is the starting point for the reconstruction of the entire system The conflict in Ukraine has become a reason for sanctions, and Russia's pipeline of natural gas to Europe has plummeted from 150 billion cubic meters to 40 billion cubic meters Subsequently, the Nord Stream pipeline was destroyed, completely reshaping Europe's energy structure The proportion of LNG supply from the United States to Europe has increased from 28% in 2021 to 58% in 2025, with exports reaching 111 million tons, becoming the first country in history to surpass 100 million tons Europe has transformed from a buyer with diverse choices to a "locked market" that relies on the US dollar for energy procurement 2/The second stage is Syria The fall of Assad's regime cut off an important node of the the Belt and Road to the Mediterranean The railway system between Iran, Iraq, and Syria, which was originally used to bypass the sea passage, has been completely destroyed Iran is geographically isolated, creating conditions for subsequent actions The third stage is Venezuela In January, the United States actually controlled the world's largest reserve of heavy crude oil The Gulf Coast of the United States has the world's most mature heavy oil refining system, which was originally built to process this type of crude oil Phillips 66, Valero and other companies can digest Venezuelan crude oil on a large scale The United States has not only gained important resources, but also further consolidated its position as the leading exporter of refined oil products, with a market size of approximately $110 billion by 2025 Venezuela and Iran are among the few energy suppliers that have long operated outside the US dollar system, primarily selling crude oil to China These two channels are being rapidly compressed 4/The fourth stage is the energy shock between Iran and the Middle East Israel hits Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reservoir Iran has retaliated against Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG base, which is the world's largest liquefied natural gas export facility and accounts for approximately 20% of global supply Qatar assesses that about 17% of its export capacity has been damaged, and the recovery period may take up to 5 years The Strait of Hormuz is closed European natural gas prices rise by 70%, Asian spot prices double In this situation, the only one still possessing large-scale stable supply capability is the United States If there is a change in the Iranian regime and a shift towards a model influenced by the United States, then 40 to 45 million barrels out of approximately 103 million barrels per day globally will fall within the US system OPEC's influence will be weakened, and the US camp will become the new marginal price setter Combined with natural gas, this control is far more than just oil This conflict is essentially upgrading the traditional petrodollar system to the "oil+gas dollar system" Previously dependent on Saudi crude oil Now turning to US crude oil and US LNG And LNG requires long-term contracts and infrastructure, once bound, the cycle is decades There are almost no alternative paths in Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other regions Equivalent to being locked into the US energy system The market trend has already reflected this change The US dollar index rose from 96 to 101 Gold has fallen about 20% from its January high Bitcoin drops by 20% within the year Brent oil price rises to $100 Institutions in Europe and Asia are selling gold and cryptocurrency assets in exchange for US dollars to purchase energy Essentially, it is exchanging assets for energy and then locking in dollars with energy The US dollar is being strengthened through energy dependence And this round of repricing does not depend on the outcome of the war On a deeper level, it is the industrial structure Artificial intelligence is not a pure software industry, but highly dependent on energy and hardware Data centers require stable large-scale electricity, mainly relying on natural gas Chip manufacturing requires helium and rare earths When Hormuz is blocked and the supply of LNG and helium in the Middle East is damaged, China's computing power and semiconductor expansion capabilities will be limited The United States is different, with abundant domestic energy and continuous expansion China is an energy importing country, and its transportation routes are constrained by maritime channels Iran was originally an important land route to bypass the Malacca Strait dilemma Once weakened, this path also disappears The result is that China needs to compete for resources in the more tense global energy market And the United States can rely on domestic energy to sustain its computing power expansion Next up is Russia If Iran re enters the market under the influence of the United States, it will compete with Russia for China and India at a lower cost Russia's costs are higher Its energy advantage will be weakened Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to crack down on Russia's energy infrastructure The overall trend is that Russia is under increasing pressure The signal released by the United States is very direct Multiple regional patterns have been reshaped in a short period of time, and you need to accept new negotiation conditions Ultimately, when the United States engages in a game with China, its chips will be more concentrated Energy dominance Strengthening the monetary system Key area channel control China faces a more closed energy environment Israel and Gulf countries bear the cost of conflict And the United States gains structural benefits Qatar's production capacity is damaged, which will reshape the natural gas pricing system in the coming years, benefiting US exports Gulf countries need long-term recovery Europe enters energy crisis cycle again The United States may face certain inflationary pressures domestically But from a strategic perspective, if the competition between China and the United States in artificial intelligence is seen as a decisive game, this cost is acceptable The underlying logic is very clear Whoever controls the energy channel will affect the monetary system Whoever controls both energy and currency at the same time can determine the computing infrastructure And computing power determines the future competitive landscape